Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 25.497264 28.153813 31.165130 34.876454 39.392970 44.802016 51.918091
2025-03-02 21.640726 25.020938 29.181447 34.837184 42.604734 53.392394 70.593288
2025-03-09 18.999176 22.674492 27.470906 34.494633 45.150059 62.089814 95.178489
2025-03-16 17.087963 20.873982 26.037071 34.055417 47.285293 71.123695 129.091138
2025-03-23 15.660125 19.480871 24.876871 33.674686 49.298160 81.025847 179.814139
2025-03-30 14.569249 18.399054 23.969450 33.444236 51.440159 92.602604 265.411145
2025-04-06 13.542313 17.287391 22.851810 32.618879 52.162672 101.547826 384.697126
2025-04-13 13.184939 17.106747 23.126390 34.228392 58.440220 131.795001 1120.320117
2025-04-20 12.505683 16.372694 22.417957 33.891446 60.258729 150.595983 4199.803280
2025-04-27 12.011479 15.876881 22.039136 34.106784 63.540086 181.181551 NaN
2025-05-04 11.595757 15.466845 21.754739 34.451127 67.354678 224.270139 NaN
2025-05-11 11.182876 15.028408 21.373158 34.522902 70.485878 275.368617 NaN
2025-05-18 10.713241 14.474469 20.750119 34.006536 71.763408 321.907247 NaN
2025-05-25 10.360320 14.088604 20.394917 34.033598 74.949049 412.870682 NaN
2025-06-01 9.995497 13.660727 19.926657 33.732408 76.941980 517.301289 NaN
2025-06-08 9.647795 13.241562 19.441177 33.321537 78.427730 649.802139 NaN
2025-06-15 9.333878 12.862175 19.001386 32.959742 80.031197 848.914198 NaN
2025-06-22 9.060367 12.536781 18.639575 32.739754 82.215389 1214.230596 NaN
2025-06-29 8.741806 12.119964 18.075698 31.944080 81.576377 1473.973513 NaN
2025-07-06 8.698143 12.170000 18.413581 33.497769 92.975273 12980.818338 NaN
2025-07-13 8.462849 11.876529 18.056117 33.172957 94.863331 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.294396 11.691887 17.902437 33.380778 99.984232 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.147173 11.537445 17.798263 33.712928 106.312703 NaN NaN